سلسلة يكتبها جلال مراد
القوة الجاذبة:
في واقع الأمر فإن واقع الانفجار أدى لنشوء قوتين: قوة طرد مركزية تبعد كل العناصر عن بعضها البعض، وهي عينها القوة الدافعة للانفجار التي تبعد المكونات عن الهوية المركزية السورية، وقوة أخرى وهي قوة الجذب المركزي التي تجذب كل العناصر إلى المركز.. إلى الجوهر المشترك للسوريين، المركز الحقيقي الذي تنعدم به القوى وهو حقيقة الهوية السورية.
خلال السنة الأخيرة تقريبا ً باتت القوة الانفجارية تعادل في الطاقة القوة الجاذبة المركزية، في هذه المرحلة من انعدام الدفع أو السحب، وتكافؤ تلك القوتين بالقيمة نشأت قوة خاصة لكل هوية جزئية (ما قبل وطنية). تقاربت العناصر المنسجمة بالهوية الجزئية بقوة جذب الهويات الجزئية، وتنافرت العناصر المختلفة بالهويات الجزئية وفق تنافر الهويات الجزئية (قبوطنية) نفسها. وبدأت تمتد علاقات بين الأشخاص ليشكلوا بنيات (من بنية) متعددة، وتجمعات متوائمة، مع هويتهم الجزئية القبوطنية.
بدأت الكيانات العرقية تلتفّ حول هويتها العرقية، والعناصر الطائفية حول هويتها الطائفية، والتجمعات الجهوية المناطقية حول هويتها المناطقية، وغيرها من التجمعات حول هويات قبوطنية. شَرعت هذه العلاقات الرابطة بين العناصر المتحلقة حول هويتها الجزئية القبوطنية تتصلّب قليلاً قليلاً لتبدأ بالانتقال من بنية إلى بواكير مؤسسات لها صفة متعالية عن الأشخاص أي تابو (بواكير قانون).
لكن هل سيدوم الأمر على هذه الحالة؟ ماذا عندما تصبح القوة الجاذبة المركزية أقوى من القوة الانفجارية الدافعة؟
الحركة العكسية:
إن الحركة العكسية نحو المركز (الهوية السورية المركزية) ستحصل بتسارع بعد هذا الحيز من السكون الذي تعادلت به القوتين (الدافعة والجاذبة المركزية).
لن يتاح للكيانات الجزئية التي كانت في طور التشكيل الحفاظ على تماسكها الكامل، ولن يتاح لها تشكيل مؤسسات قانونية مستقلة تماماً بسبب القوة الهائلة للهوية المركزية السورية، حيث ستقوم بجذب الكيانات القبوطنية، ولن تكون للقوى داخل الكيانات التي تتحلّق حول هوياتها الجزئية أي دور في كبح قوة الجذب المركزية باتجاه الهوية. وبناء على قوة وتماسك الكيانات الجزئية يتحدّد شكلان محتملان من البنية الوطنية العامة:
الشكل الأول: ويتمثل بفطر قوة الجذب للهوية المركزية السورية الهويات الجزئية، مما ينتج عن ذلك البقاء على سمات عامة للهويات الجزئية مع فقدانها للكثير من التشريعات الجزئية. وعدم قدرتها على إنجاز القوامية الدستورية المستقلة. ما يتبقى منها فقط التشريعات التي تحفظ تمايزها الاختلافي. حيث ترفع هذه التشريعات إلى التابو والدستور العام لسوريا.
الشكل الثاني: أن تكون قوى التنافر بين الهويات القبوطنية الجزئية أقوى من القوة الجاذبة للهوية الوطنية الكلية. أو قوة التنافر بين الهوية الوطنية المركزية من جهة، وكم كبير من الهويات الجزئية من جهة أُخرى كبيرة وأقوى من القوة الجاذبة للهوية السورية المركزية. في هذا الشكل الاحتمالي هناك خطر من تشكل دولة ذات سيادة عامة ومن المرجح وجود دويلات، أو فدراليات، بالتوازي مع وجود حكومة مركزية ليست كاملة السلطة، أي حكومة اتحادية.
معلوم ومجاهيل:
الشكل المستقبلي لسوريا في هذه الفترة هو من المجاهيل. وعموماً فإن هذا الشكل قد يمتد أو يتقلص.. يتغير حسب الاقتضاءات السياسية والاقتصادية والخارجية. قد يكون برلمانياً دستورياً، أو اتحادياً فدرالياً، أو جمهورياً موحّداً، أو طائفياً تحاصصياً، أو غير ذلك. المعلوم الوحيد والذي يمكن للإرادة (إرادة الناشطين) التأثير فيه هو المحتوى وليس الشكل.
هناك العديد من أشكال الحكم في العالم (الملكي، الملكي الدستوري، الجمهوري، البرلماني، الفيدالي، الاتحادي، الإماراتي، البرلماني.. الخ). هذا الشكل تحدده غالباً الثقافة العامة للبلد المعني وظروف خارجة عن سيطرة الإرادة. وبشكل أدق تحدده طبيعة الهويات الجزئية للطوائف والأعراق والجهويات وغيرها.
لكننا نلاحظ أن كثيراً من الأنظمة ذات الشكل الواحد تختلف بنسبة النمو، والكفاية، والأمان. فقد نجد نظاماً جمهورياً مثلاً مزدهراً بكل المجالات الثقافية، والاقتصادية، والمعاشية، والعلمية وغير ذلك. ونظاماً جمهورياً متهالكاً بفعل الفساد والفقر والعوز والجهل. إذاً ليس شكل النظام هو الفيصل والمحدد لمعامل الازدهار بل محتوى النظام.
محتوى النظام بغض النظر عن شكله هو الذي يقع نسبياً تحت يد الإرادة الإنسانية الفاعلة، وهو الذي يمكن أن يتقهقر أو يزدهر أو يأخذ حال بينهما تبعاً للنشاط الإنساني. في هذه الجزئية (النشاط الإنساني الفاعل) علينا أن نتبين ونحلل هذا المعطى الذي هو قبض اليد، والعامل المهم فعلياً بتوفير شروط حياة صحية للفرد والجماعات داخل النظام الجديد.
يتبع..
مجلة مستقلة، تعنى بشؤون الثورة السورية، نصف شهرية، تطبع وتوزع داخل سوريا وفي عدد من مخيمات اللجوء والتجمعات السورية في الخارج
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