افتتاحية بقلم د. عبد الرحمن الحاج*
أحدث التقدم الذي حققه النظام والميليشيات الإيرانية الحليفة في حلب وقع الصدمة، فلم يكن أحد يتوقع أن يكون التقدم سريعاً إلى هذا الحدّ، وبدا واضحاً من ردود الفعل العربية والدولية الباهتة أن حلفاءنا سلموا بسقوط حلب، حتى قبل هذا التقدم بوقت ليس بالقصير؛ إذ لا معنى لوقف الإمداد بالسلاح غير تسليم المدينة.
بعد وقع الخسارة الكبير تشكل جيش حلب، وقالت الفصائل إنه اندماج كامل لكل الفصائل في حلب للصمود في وجه النظام وعدم تسليم المدينة، لكن الأهم ما الذي أحدث هذا الانهيار العظيم في جبهات حلب رغم وجود ما يقارب ستة آلاف مقاتل وتسليح مقبول؟
هنالك ثلاثة أسباب رئيسية: الأول هو القرار العسكري المشتّت بين الفصائل؛ فكل فصيل سيد نفسه، هكذا فالتنسيق العسكري في أدنى مستوياته، والاعتماد على صدّ الهجوم يرتبط بـ”الفزعة” و”المؤازرة” كأنما كل جبهة هي إقطاع خاص بفصيل عسكري.
الثاني هو انهيار ثقة الأهالي بالفصائل عندما أغاروا على أحد أبرز الفصائل “تجمع فاستقم كما أمرت” واعتقلوا قائده وسطوا على مخازنه، فقد هوت ثقة الأهالي -الذين عانوا الأمرين تحت الفوضى والبراميل المتفجرة والقنابل الارتجاجية والمحاكم الخاصة بفتية الفصائل- بحماية الفصائل لها؛ إذ كيف يمكن لفصائل تأكل بعضها بعضاً أن تحميهم من النظام؟
الثالث هو الأخطاء القاتلة التي ارتكبت في عمليتي فكّ حصار حلب، من جهة انصرفت بعض الفصائل من جبهة حلب الجنوبية (المدفعية) التي خطط لها أن تكون في ستة مراحل عند المرحلة الثالثة إلى القتال في جبهات أخرى، ومن جهة ثانية حاولت جبهة النصرة الاستئثار بالنصر غير المكتمل وإعلان ذلك عبر بيانات استباقاً لسرقة محتملة لجهودها من قبل فصائل حلب المدينة. وفي معركة فك الحصار في الريف الغربي اتبعت تكتيكات عسكرية غير مناسبة وغير مخططة جيداً، سرعان ما تبين فشلها بعد التوغل قرابة كيلومتر واحد، وفشلت، وهكذا خسرنا بسرعة كبيرة ما كسبناه بالسرعة ذاتها.
ما من شكّ أن الوضع في حلب صار شبيها جداً بوضع كثير من المناطق المحاصرة، لكنّه أشبه ما يكون الآن بالغوطة الشرقية؛ الانهيارات المتتالية في الغوطة لديها أسبابها الشبيهة جداً بحلب، حلب مهددة بأسباب ذاتية قبل أن تكون خارجية، وفصائلها تحاول الآن تداركها، ولا أحد يعلم مدى نجاحها وما إذا كان قد فات الأوان قبل ظهور نتائج واضحة. الغوطة لا تزال متعثرة ومثيرة لعلامات الاستفهام في الشمال.
لقد صار واضحاً أن وجهة النظام والميليشيات الإيرانية والطائرات الروسية بعد حلب ستكون مكرسة لانتزاع الغوطة الشرقية، فثقل “سوريا المفيدة” هو هنا في حلب ودمشق والغوطة منها، وهكذا ما سيجري في حلب سينعكس على الغوطة، تبدو الغوطة الشرقية في دمشق وكأنها غوطة حلب الآن!
إذا ما خسرنا حلب والغوطة سنكون قد خسرنا الكثير، وسيتحمل القادة العسكريون مسؤولية هذه الخسائر وتلك الدماء المسكوبة، مثلما سينسب لهم النصر عندما يحققونه.
الثورة لا تنتهي عند حلب ولا الغوطة، ولكن خسارتهما ستكون ثقيلة وباهظة الثمن.
* عضو الأمانة العامة للمجلس الوطني
مجلة مستقلة، تعنى بشؤون الثورة السورية، نصف شهرية، تطبع وتوزع داخل سوريا وفي عدد من مخيمات اللجوء والتجمعات السورية في الخارج
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