مقالات رأي

هل تمتلك المفاوضات مقومات النجاح؟

يقبل السوريون اليوم على مرحلة حاسمة من تاريخ أزمتهم تتمحور حول إطلاق مفاوضات بين النظام والمعارضة للوصول إلى حلّ لهذه الأزمة. وتضع القوى الدولية والإقليمية كل ثقلها أو شيئاً منه لدفعها نحو الحدوث. لكن أحداً لا يبدو عازماً على جعلها تؤتي ثماراً تعود على السوريين بالخير، وهو أمر لن نتطرق إليه بالتفصيل هنا.

يتلخص الهدف العام لهذه المفاوضات، وفق ما رشح عنها حتى لحظة كتابة هذا المقال، بالوصول إلى حلّ سياسي للأزمة السورية، وهو هدف بعيد المنال ضمن المعطيات الحالية.

يجدر القول بأن كل ما يحدث في سوريا جدير بالتفاوض، وأن أي تطور يوفر قطرة من الدم هو تطور إيجابي في ظلّ هذا البحر الممتد من الموت والدمار. هذا ما تفرضه الواقعية بأي حال.

ليس هذا جلّ ما يصبو إليه السوريون، لكنه، وفي ضوء الواقع الأليم الذي آلت إليه الثورة، يشكل أولوية مرحلية. يجب دون ريب التفريق بين الحلول والصفقات الاستراتيجية طويلة الأمد، والحلول التكتيكية التي تعالج جزءاً أو أجزاء من الأزمة. يمكن أحيانا التساهل حول حلول المدى البعيد لتحقيق مكاسب مرحلية أو العكس، سيما حين يتعلّق الأمر بحياة الأبرياء.

يبدو مفيداً أن ننظر بقليل من التحليل إلى الأمور كما هي على الأرض وفي المحافل. ولا يبدو أن هناك الكثير مما يجمع النظام والمعارضة من حيث الأهداف من هذه المفاوضات. والأهداف المتعلقة بمستقبل سوريا، ولعلّ النظام يمتلك وضوحاً أكبر في رؤيته تلك، وهي رؤية همجية أحادية؛ فهو يدافع عن سوريا الأسد والحزب الواحد والعائلة الواحدة، ولديه حليف عسكري يزجّ بطيرانه وجنوده دعماً له، وحلفاء آخرون يساندونه في المحافل الدولية وكواليس السياسة والصفقات الكبرى. لكن المعارضة مشتتة في رؤيتها تلك، ولا تحظى بحليف بوزن روسيا أو إيران، وهو أمر يضعف موقفها التفاوضي كثيراً. يعني هذا أن إمكانية اللقاء حول حل أو خطة للحل لا يبدو ظاهراً للعيان. فما يفرق الطرفين أكثر بكثير مما يمكن أن يجمعهما، إن وجد هذا الأخير أصلاً.

في علم التفاوض، هناك أركان لا بد من توفرها للشروع بمفاوضات تحظى بالنجاح، لن نسردها جميعها هنا. لكن التفاوض على أمر ما بين طرفين أو أكثر يتطلب توفر ما يسمى بـ “حيز الاتفاق المحتمل” بين أطراف التفاوض. والتفاوض، أولاً وقبل كل شيء، يتمّ على أمر لأطراف عملية التفاوض فيه مصلحة واضحة، مع توفر إمكانية تقديم التنازلات ضمن حدود المصلحة العليا لكل طرف.

لا يتم التفاوض حول أمور متناقضة تماماً لا يمكن الالتقاء حولها. فالتفاوض هو عملية ثنائية، ترمي إلى الوصول إلى حل يتفق عليه طرفان، حتى في حالات الحرب، للقيام بأمر معاً! إن غياب هذه المساحة يعني أنها عملية لإخضاع طرف لشروط الطرف الآخر كاملة، وهو يناقض جوهر مفهوم التفاوض القائم على الوصول إلى حلّ وسط لمشكلة ما. أو قد يعني، وهذا ما يبدو عليه الحال، أن حظوظ النجاح تصبح شبه معدومة.

على المعارضة اليوم وهي تستعد لجنيف الثالثة، أن تجيب عن أسئلة حيوية جداً. هل هناك شيء من هذه المساحة المشتركة فعلاً؟ هل هناك نقاط مشتركة بين النظام والمعارضة يمكن أن يتم الاتفاق حولها؟ هل هناك مرونة لدى أطراف المفاوضات لتوسيع هذه المساحة من خلال تقديم تنازلات معينة؟ هل يمتلك أي من الطرفين القوة (leverage) للضغط باتجاه كسب المزيد؟ هل تمتلك المعارضة هذه القوة؟..

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